How NBA Shooting Accuracy Falls With Distance — and Why Value Doesn't
Bin 25,000 real shots by distance: FG% decays from 69.5% at the rim to 34.4% from 26+ feet, but points per shot jumps 40% at the arc. The value cliff, charted.
8 min read
Category
Stat Explainers
Plain-English breakdowns of the box-score and advanced metrics that actually matter — what each stat measures, the formula behind it, and where it misleads you.
Every stat on this site gets the same treatment here: what it measures, the arithmetic that produces it, and the situation in which it will mislead you. The lane runs from the box-score basics — field goal percentage, rebound rate, assist percentage, free throw rate — through the efficiency stats that replaced them (effective field goal percentage, True Shooting, points per possession) and on to the all-in-one metrics that try to compress a player into a single number. Where a formula carries a coefficient, the explainer says where the coefficient came from. Where a stat is a modeling choice dressed up as a measurement — shot quality, adjusted plus-minus, anything that depends on a garbage-time filter — it says that too. Start anywhere: each piece stands on its own and links to the ones it leans on.
Points Per Shot: The Number That Explains Modern Shot Selection
Multiply a shot's point value by how often it goes in and you get the stat that rebuilt NBA offenses. The rim and the three pay; the long two doesn't.
7 min read
The Value of a Possession: Points Per Possession and Why Per-100 Wins
An average NBA possession is worth a touch over a point. How points per possession separates pace from efficiency, and how it rolls up into net rating.
8 min read
Switching Defense and Positional Versatility: The Roster It Takes
Switching kills the screen by trading men — if your defenders can guard anyone. When teams switch, the personnel it takes, and the mismatch trade-off.
8 min read
Drives and Paint Touches: How Rim Pressure Bends a Defense
What tracking data counts as a drive, why rim pressure forces a defense to collapse, and how the drive-and-kick turns penetration into open threes.
7 min read
The Mid-Range Shot: Why Analytics Devalued It, and Who Still Uses It
The mid-range is the least efficient zone on average, but it never died. Why shot-value math devalued it, and when it's actually the right shot to take.
8 min read
Rim Protection, Explained: Contesting, Deterring, and Why Blocks Undercount It
The most valuable shot in basketball is at the rim. How rim protection works through contesting and deterrence, and why blocks miss most of the job.
7 min read
Shot Quality, Explained: Separating Shot Selection From Shot-Making
FG% tells you a shot went in, not how hard it was. How tracking-based expected FG% models shot difficulty and splits shot selection from shot-making.
7 min read
Offensive Rebounding and Second-Chance Points: The Crash-or-Retreat Trade-Off
An offensive rebound buys a cheap second-chance bucket but risks a fast break the other way. Why the modern NBA has largely stopped crashing the glass.
8 min read
Transition vs. Half-Court Offense: Why Fast Breaks Are So Efficient
A possession in transition is worth far more than one against a set defense. Why fast breaks score so efficiently, and how transition play is measured.
7 min read
The Corner Three: Why It's the Most Valuable Shot Behind the Arc
The corner three sits nearly two feet closer than the top of the arc. The geometry behind the most efficient three, and how offenses are built to create it.
7 min read
Screen Assists and the Pick-and-Roll: Measuring the NBA's Bread-and-Butter Play
The pick-and-roll runs the modern NBA, but the box score barely sees the screener's work. What a screen assist measures, and roll versus pop, quantified.
8 min read
The 50/40/90 Club: What Shooting Splits Really Tell You
50% from the field, 40% from three, 90% from the line — the rare, elite shooting season. What the 50/40/90 club measures and why it's so hard to join.
7 min read
Free Throw Rate: The Underrated Skill of Drawing Fouls
The easiest points in basketball are the ones taken from the line. Why free throw rate is a real, repeatable skill — and one of the four factors that win games.
7 min read
VORP and Win Shares: Turning Box Scores Into Wins
Replacement level, Win Shares, and VORP answer one question — how many wins is a player worth? How the cumulative metrics are built, and their blind spots.
7 min read
Pace and Possessions: Why Per-Game Stats Mislead
A team scoring 120 a night isn't necessarily a great offense — it might just play fast. How possessions are estimated and why per-100 stats level the field.
7 min read
Why Individual Defense Is So Hard to Measure
Offense is easy to count; defense fights back. Why the best defensive plays never hit the box score, and what steals, tracking data, and RAPM can and can't see.
7 min read
PER, Explained: What Hollinger's All-in-One Metric Gets Right and Wrong
Player Efficiency Rating squeezes a season into one pace-adjusted number set to a league average of 15. What it nails, and the blind spots that built BPM and EPM.
7 min read
Rebound Rate Explained: Why Total Rebounds Lie
Total rebounds reward minutes and pace, not skill. Rebound rate asks the better question — what share of available misses a player actually grabbed.
7 min read
Assist Percentage and the Limits of the Assist
The assist is the most subjective stat in the box score. How assist percentage reframes playmaking — and what even it still can't see.
7 min read
True Shooting Percentage Explained: Why It Beats Field Goal Percentage
Field goal percentage treats a layup and a three the same and ignores free throws. True Shooting fixes all three — here's the formula and what it reveals.
7 min read
Effective Field Goal % vs. True Shooting %: What's the Difference?
Two efficiency stats, one subtle but important distinction. When eFG% and TS% diverge, the gap tells you exactly how a player scores.
6 min read
Usage Rate Explained: Measuring How Much a Player Drives the Offense
Usage rate estimates the share of team possessions a player finishes. Here's how it's calculated and why high usage isn't automatically good.
6 min read
Offensive and Defensive Rating: How Per-100-Possession Stats Work
Pace warps raw points. Per-100-possession ratings level the floor so you can compare a fast team and a slow one on equal terms.
7 min read
Box Plus/Minus, EPM, and All-in-One Metrics: A Practical Guide
One number to rank every player? Here's what BPM, EPM, and PIE actually measure, where they agree, and where they very much don't.
8 min read
The Four Factors: The Stats That Actually Decide Basketball Games
Shoot well, don't turn it over, hit the offensive glass, get to the line. Dean Oliver's Four Factors compress winning into four numbers.
7 min read