Why Player Projection Systems Disagree: A Look Under the Hood
Feed two projection systems the same player and they'll often hand back different futures. The disagreement is structural — here's where it comes from.
7 min read
Category
Methodology & Projections
How forecasting and win-probability models are built, why they disagree, and what the data really says about predicting basketball.
How NBA Win-Probability Models Work (And Why They Disagree)
That live win-probability number is a model output, not a fact. Here's what goes into one, and why two good models can disagree by 20 points.
7 min read
Does Preseason Performance Predict Anything? What the Data Says
Every October we read into preseason results. I pulled preseason and regular-season net ratings to see whether October tells us anything at all.
6 min read