NBAAnalytic

The NBA, read through the data.

Methodology & Projections · · 10 min read

The October Glass Preseason Rebounding Is Real. Its Shooting Is Not.

Added to last season's numbers, NBA preseason offensive rebounding doubles what can be explained, 19.2% to 40.5%. Preseason shooting adds nothing.

40.5%

of the spread in teams' regular-season offensive rebounding explained by last season's rate plus the preseason's. Last season alone: 19.2%.

Last season is still the best single thing to know about a team in October, for ten of the eleven numbers here. But a preseason is not one number.

Read the feature

Who brought last season back

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026. Orange: above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026, sorted: San Antonio Spurs 93.8%, Orlando Magic 90.3%, New York Knicks 88.5% at the top; Memphis Grizzlies 47.4% and Los Angeles Lakers 42.4% at the bottom. 16 of 30 teams are above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.40%60%80%100%93.8SAS90.3ORL88.5NYK84.6NOP84.1HOU76.0PHX75.4BOS74.3GSW73.3WAS72.8DET72.2IND70.8OKC70.7ATL70.4POR70.2MIL67.8CLE66.3TOR65.6MIN63.8UTA63.2BKN61.5MIA61.2CHA61.1DEN61.0DAL56.1PHI54.7CHI52.8SAC49.2LAC47.4MEM42.4LAL2005-06 to 2025-26 average: 67.2%

Worth 4.85 points of margin per unit of share against an average roster: San Antonio Spurs +1.29, Los Angeles Lakers −1.20. Rosters retrieved October 6, 2026. From The Continuity Dividend.

The class of 2025, year one

The 10 busiest 2025-26 rookies. In year two, players their age add about as much as rookies do. From The Sophomore Leap.

  1. VJ Edgecombe

    PHI · pick 3 · age 20

    minutes a game
    35.0
    points per 36
    16.5
    true shooting %
    54.0

  2. Kon Knueppel

    CHA · pick 4 · age 20

    minutes a game
    31.5
    points per 36
    21.1
    true shooting %
    63.3

  3. Cooper Flagg

    DAL · pick 1 · age 19

    minutes a game
    33.5
    points per 36
    22.6
    true shooting %
    54.8

  4. Jeremiah Fears

    NOP · pick 7 · age 19

    minutes a game
    25.8
    points per 36
    19.9
    true shooting %
    52.5

  5. Derik Queen

    NOP · pick 13 · age 21

    minutes a game
    25.0
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    54.6

  6. Ace Bailey

    UTA · pick 5 · age 19

    minutes a game
    27.6
    points per 36
    18.0
    true shooting %
    53.3

  7. Maxime Raynaud

    SAC · pick 42 · age 23

    minutes a game
    26.5
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    61.9

  8. Nique Clifford

    SAC · pick 24 · age 24

    minutes a game
    25.1
    points per 36
    12.3
    true shooting %
    50.5

  9. Sion James

    CHA · pick 33 · age 23

    minutes a game
    22.5
    points per 36
    8.6
    true shooting %
    53.1

  10. Will Riley

    WAS · pick 21 · age 20

    minutes a game
    22.1
    points per 36
    16.8
    true shooting %
    54.8

Source: NBA Stats API via nba_api, retrieved September 2026.

Latest

  1. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Climb and the Slide: The NBA's Bottom Empties Faster Than Its Top

  2. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Parity Pendulum: NBA Balance Comes in Eras, Not Trends

  3. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Conference Tax: The West Was a Home Court Better, and It Cost a Record One Win

  4. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Rest Ledger: The NBA Balances Your Fatigue, Not Theirs

  5. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Straight-On Premium: What the Middle of the Lane Pays

  6. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Shot Oligarchy: Concentrated Offenses Win — but Not for the Reason You Think

Sections

Calculators