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Methodology & Projections · · 11 min read

The Continuity Dividend What Bringing a Roster Back Is Worth

Every ten points of last season's minutes an NBA team brings back is worth 0.48 points of margin, about 1.2 wins, on top of its margin. Age is a separate lever.

+0.48

points of next season's margin for every ten points of last season's minutes that come back. 630 team-seasons, standard error 0.10.

It is not youth in disguise, it does not come from players lost to season-long injuries, and it shows up in both halves of the file. It is also a nudge rather than a verdict. Last season's margin explains 35.3% of the spread in the next season's, and the returning share lifts that to 37.5%.

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Who brought last season back

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026. Orange: above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026, sorted: San Antonio Spurs 93.8%, Orlando Magic 90.3%, New York Knicks 88.5% at the top; Memphis Grizzlies 47.4% and Los Angeles Lakers 42.4% at the bottom. 16 of 30 teams are above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.40%60%80%100%93.8SAS90.3ORL88.5NYK84.6NOP84.1HOU76.0PHX75.4BOS74.3GSW73.3WAS72.8DET72.2IND70.8OKC70.7ATL70.4POR70.2MIL67.8CLE66.3TOR65.6MIN63.8UTA63.2BKN61.5MIA61.2CHA61.1DEN61.0DAL56.1PHI54.7CHI52.8SAC49.2LAC47.4MEM42.4LAL2005-06 to 2025-26 average: 67.2%

Worth 4.85 points of margin per unit of share against an average roster: San Antonio Spurs +1.29, Los Angeles Lakers −1.20. Rosters retrieved October 6, 2026. From The Continuity Dividend.

The class of 2025, year one

The 10 busiest 2025-26 rookies. In year two, players their age add about as much as rookies do. From The Sophomore Leap.

  1. VJ Edgecombe

    PHI · pick 3 · age 20

    minutes a game
    35.0
    points per 36
    16.5
    true shooting %
    54.0

  2. Kon Knueppel

    CHA · pick 4 · age 20

    minutes a game
    31.5
    points per 36
    21.1
    true shooting %
    63.3

  3. Cooper Flagg

    DAL · pick 1 · age 19

    minutes a game
    33.5
    points per 36
    22.6
    true shooting %
    54.8

  4. Jeremiah Fears

    NOP · pick 7 · age 19

    minutes a game
    25.8
    points per 36
    19.9
    true shooting %
    52.5

  5. Derik Queen

    NOP · pick 13 · age 21

    minutes a game
    25.0
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    54.6

  6. Ace Bailey

    UTA · pick 5 · age 19

    minutes a game
    27.6
    points per 36
    18.0
    true shooting %
    53.3

  7. Maxime Raynaud

    SAC · pick 42 · age 23

    minutes a game
    26.5
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    61.9

  8. Nique Clifford

    SAC · pick 24 · age 24

    minutes a game
    25.1
    points per 36
    12.3
    true shooting %
    50.5

  9. Sion James

    CHA · pick 33 · age 23

    minutes a game
    22.5
    points per 36
    8.6
    true shooting %
    53.1

  10. Will Riley

    WAS · pick 21 · age 20

    minutes a game
    22.1
    points per 36
    16.8
    true shooting %
    54.8

Source: NBA Stats API via nba_api, retrieved September 2026.

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