NBAAnalytic

The NBA, read through the data.

Studies built on our own calculations from public NBA data.

  1. The Continuity Dividend: What Bringing a Roster Back Is Worth

    Every ten points of last season's minutes an NBA team brings back is worth 0.48 points of margin, about 1.2 wins, on top of its margin. Age is a separate lever.

    11 min read

  2. The Giveback: Last Season's Luck Is Worth a Fifth of a Win

    A win an NBA team's margin earned carries 0.63 of a win into the next season; a win beyond it carries 0.21. What that says about the Lakers and Hornets.

    10 min read

  3. The Four Factors: The Stats That Actually Decide Basketball Games

    Dean Oliver's Four Factors tested on all 1,230 games of 2025-26: they explain 94% of margins, but shooting is half the story and free throws under 7%.

    12 min read

  4. The October Glass: Preseason Rebounding Is Real. Its Shooting Is Not.

    Added to last season's numbers, NBA preseason offensive rebounding doubles what can be explained, 19.2% to 40.5%. Preseason shooting adds nothing.

    10 min read

  5. The Handoff: Six Games In, This NBA Season Outranks the Last

    Last season's margin is the better guide to an NBA team for five games. At game six this season's takes over; after game eight last season adds almost nothing.

    10 min read

  6. The Restricted-Area Cliff: The Biggest Efficiency Drop on an NBA Floor Is Not at the Arc

    The restricted area shoots 65.8%, the rest of the paint 44.2% — a 21.6-point cliff, five times any gap at the arc, and the fall is finished five feet from the rim.

    8 min read

  7. The Sophomore Leap: Real, and Almost All of It Is Age

    NBA rookies add 0.97 points per 36 in year two, but players the same age improve just as much. The one real year-two effect is 1.53 more minutes a game.

    9 min read

  8. The Corner Three, Measured: What the Shortest Three Actually Pays

    Corner threes hit 38.6% and pay 1.16 points per shot against 1.08 above the break. Fit accuracy to distance and the premium vanishes into geometry: 22 feet, priced.

    8 min read

Methodology & Projections · · 10 min read

The Starting Line What Opening Night Knows About an NBA Season

A baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age explains 40% of an NBA season and misses by 7.65 wins on average. Every team's 2026-27 number.

7.65

wins: how far an opening-night baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age missed on average, tested on 21 seasons it never saw.

It explains 39.6% of the spread in teams' wins. It misses by 7.65 wins on average, and one team in five lands more than eleven or twelve wins from its number.

Read the feature

Who brought last season back

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026. Orange: above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026, sorted: San Antonio Spurs 93.8%, Orlando Magic 90.3%, New York Knicks 88.5% at the top; Memphis Grizzlies 47.4% and Los Angeles Lakers 42.4% at the bottom. 16 of 30 teams are above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.40%60%80%100%93.8SAS90.3ORL88.5NYK84.6NOP84.1HOU76.0PHX75.4BOS74.3GSW73.3WAS72.8DET72.2IND70.8OKC70.7ATL70.4POR70.2MIL67.8CLE66.3TOR65.6MIN63.8UTA63.2BKN61.5MIA61.2CHA61.1DEN61.0DAL56.1PHI54.7CHI52.8SAC49.2LAC47.4MEM42.4LAL2005-06 to 2025-26 average: 67.2%

Worth 4.85 points of margin per unit of share against an average roster: San Antonio Spurs +1.29, Los Angeles Lakers −1.20. Rosters retrieved October 6, 2026. From The Continuity Dividend.

The class of 2025, year one

The 10 busiest 2025-26 rookies. In year two, players their age add about as much as rookies do. From The Sophomore Leap.

  1. VJ Edgecombe

    PHI · pick 3 · age 20

    minutes a game
    35.0
    points per 36
    16.5
    true shooting %
    54.0

  2. Kon Knueppel

    CHA · pick 4 · age 20

    minutes a game
    31.5
    points per 36
    21.1
    true shooting %
    63.3

  3. Cooper Flagg

    DAL · pick 1 · age 19

    minutes a game
    33.5
    points per 36
    22.6
    true shooting %
    54.8

  4. Jeremiah Fears

    NOP · pick 7 · age 19

    minutes a game
    25.8
    points per 36
    19.9
    true shooting %
    52.5

  5. Derik Queen

    NOP · pick 13 · age 21

    minutes a game
    25.0
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    54.6

  6. Ace Bailey

    UTA · pick 5 · age 19

    minutes a game
    27.6
    points per 36
    18.0
    true shooting %
    53.3

  7. Maxime Raynaud

    SAC · pick 42 · age 23

    minutes a game
    26.5
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    61.9

  8. Nique Clifford

    SAC · pick 24 · age 24

    minutes a game
    25.1
    points per 36
    12.3
    true shooting %
    50.5

  9. Sion James

    CHA · pick 33 · age 23

    minutes a game
    22.5
    points per 36
    8.6
    true shooting %
    53.1

  10. Will Riley

    WAS · pick 21 · age 20

    minutes a game
    22.1
    points per 36
    16.8
    true shooting %
    54.8

Source: NBA Stats API via nba_api, retrieved September 2026.

Latest

  1. · Methodology & Projections

    The Starting Line: What Opening Night Knows About an NBA Season

  2. · Methodology & Projections

    The Handoff: Six Games In, This NBA Season Outranks the Last

  3. · Methodology & Projections

    The October Glass: Preseason Rebounding Is Real. Its Shooting Is Not.

  4. · Methodology & Projections

    The Giveback: Last Season's Luck Is Worth a Fifth of a Win

  5. · Methodology & Projections

    The Continuity Dividend: What Bringing a Roster Back Is Worth

  6. · Data Deep-Dives

    The Sophomore Leap: Real, and Almost All of It Is Age

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