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The Pace-and-Space Revolution: How the Three-Pointer Rewired the NBA, by the Numbers
In two decades the three-pointer went from a luxury to the center of gravity of NBA offense. Here's the rewiring, charted season by season.
On air · Numbers over noise · Est. 2026
Original, data-driven NBA analysis — explainers, tutorials, and deep-dives built on public data I pull and chart myself. No invented stats, no hot takes without a table behind them.
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In two decades the three-pointer went from a luxury to the center of gravity of NBA offense. Here's the rewiring, charted season by season.
Set each team's three-point share against its offensive rating and the correlation is a weak +0.21 — Denver took the fewest threes yet ranked fifth on offense.
Across all 1,231 games of 2023-24, the correlation between total points and final margin is −0.02. Scoring volume simply doesn't predict competitiveness.
Bin 25,000 real shots by distance: FG% decays from 69.5% at the rim to 34.4% from 26+ feet, but points per shot jumps 40% at the arc. The value cliff, charted.
Points for and against alone reproduced the 2023-24 NBA standings at r=0.981 — and the teams the formula missed (Lakers, Pistons) missed on close-game record.
Measure each team's home win% minus road win% in 2023-24 and the spread runs from the Rockets at +32 to the Grizzlies at −22, around a +8.6 league average.
Each point of net rating was worth 2.33 wins across 2023-24's 30 teams (r²=0.95), with the line through exactly 41 wins at zero. The margin is the standings.
Six beats, one standard: every claim traces back to a number, and every number traces back to a source.
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