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The Starting Line: What Opening Night Knows About an NBA Season

A baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age explains 40% of an NBA season and misses by 7.65 wins on average. Every team's 2026-27 number.

It explains 39.6% of the spread in teams' wins. It misses by 7.65 wins on average, and one team in five lands more than eleven or twelve wins from its number.

2030415060Thunder 58.8Kings 23.3Lakers 42.5
Opening-night baselines for 2026-27, all 30 teams on one wins axis; the grey line is 41 wins. Each comes with a band 23 wins wide. From the table in The Starting Line.

Read the feature

Methodology & Projections · · 10 min read 7.65 wins: how far an opening-night baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age missed on average, tested on 21 seasons it never saw.

Rafters Pace

Is he headed for the rafters? We measure every current NBA player against the ten best players ever at his position, through the same number of seasons at that position.

The 2026-27 season is under way: its figures are Basketball-Reference’s as of November 6, 2026.

Ahead of the pace: current players with at least 3 seasons at their 2026-27 position, by pace score (100 = level with the legends’ average at the same point), as of November 6, 2026.
#PlayerPosTeamSeasons at pos.Pace scoreVerdict
1LeBron JamesPFPHI6143Ahead of the legends’ pace
2Luka DončićPGLAL8140Ahead of the legends’ pace
3Giannis AntetokounmpoPFMIA10139Ahead of the legends’ pace
4Nikola JokićCDEN12131Ahead of the legends’ pace
5Cade CunninghamPGDET4123Ahead of the legends’ pace
6James HardenPGCLE9121Ahead of the legends’ pace
7Josh GiddeyPGCHI3117Ahead of the legends’ pace
8Kevin DurantSFHOU12115Ahead of the legends’ pace
9Paolo BancheroPFORL5114On a rafters pace
10Trae YoungPGWAS8112On a rafters pace

Find a current player Rankings How it works

Who brought last season back

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026. Orange: above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026, sorted: San Antonio Spurs 93.8%, Orlando Magic 90.3%, New York Knicks 88.5% at the top; Memphis Grizzlies 47.4% and Los Angeles Lakers 42.4% at the bottom. 16 of 30 teams are above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.40%60%80%100%93.8SAS90.3ORL88.5NYK84.6NOP84.1HOU76.0PHX75.4BOS74.3GSW73.3WAS72.8DET72.2IND70.8OKC70.7ATL70.4POR70.2MIL67.8CLE66.3TOR65.6MIN63.8UTA63.2BKN61.5MIA61.2CHA61.1DEN61.0DAL56.1PHI54.7CHI52.8SAC49.2LAC47.4MEM42.4LAL2005-06 to 2025-26 average: 67.2%

Worth 4.85 points of margin per unit of share against an average roster: San Antonio Spurs +1.29, Los Angeles Lakers −1.20. Rosters retrieved October 6, 2026. From The Continuity Dividend.

The class of 2025, year one

The 10 busiest 2025-26 rookies. In year two, players their age add about as much as rookies do. From The Sophomore Leap.

Source: NBA Stats API via nba_api, retrieved September 2026.
RookieTeamPickAgeminutes a gamepoints per 36true shooting %
VJ EdgecombePHI32035.016.554.0
Kon KnueppelCHA42031.521.163.3
Cooper FlaggDAL11933.522.654.8
Jeremiah FearsNOP71925.819.952.5
Derik QueenNOP132125.016.954.6
Ace BaileyUTA51927.618.053.3
Maxime RaynaudSAC422326.516.961.9
Nique CliffordSAC242425.112.350.5
Sion JamesCHA332322.58.653.1
Will RileyWAS212022.116.854.8

Latest

  1. The Starting Line: What Opening Night Knows About an NBA Season

    · Methodology & Projections

  2. The Handoff: Six Games In, This NBA Season Outranks the Last

    · Methodology & Projections

  3. The October Glass: Preseason Rebounding Is Real. Its Shooting Is Not.

    · Methodology & Projections

  4. The Giveback: Last Season's Luck Is Worth a Fifth of a Win

    · Methodology & Projections

  5. The Continuity Dividend: What Bringing a Roster Back Is Worth

    · Methodology & Projections

  6. The Sophomore Leap: Real, and Almost All of It Is Age

    · Data Deep-Dives

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