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The Pace-and-Space Revolution: How the Three-Pointer Rewired the NBA, by the Numbers
In two decades the three-pointer went from a luxury to the center of gravity of NBA offense. Here's the rewiring, charted season by season.
On air · Numbers over noise · Est. 2026
The NBA, read through the data.
Original, data-driven NBA analysis — explainers, tutorials, and deep-dives built on public data I pull and chart myself. No invented stats, no hot takes without a table behind them.
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Latest articles
Does Offense or Defense Win in the NBA? What Net Rating's Two Halves Say
"Defense wins championships" — but in 2023-24, offensive rating predicted wins better than defensive rating (r 0.87 vs 0.75). The real correlations across all 30 teams, why net rating (r 0.98) settles it, and the limits before you believe a one-season result.
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How Often Is an NBA Game Actually Close? The 2023-24 Margin Distribution
In 2023-24 the single most common kind of NBA game wasn't a nail-biter — it was a 20-point blowout. The real distribution of 1,231 final margins, why it clashes with the vibe, and what it does (and doesn't) say about competitiveness.
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Where the NBA Actually Shoots From: 25,000 Real Shots, Mapped by Zone
Drop 25,000 real shots onto the floor and 69% come from just two places — the rim and the arc. The mid-range has collapsed to one shot in nine. A from-scratch shot-location analysis with the real distribution, points per shot by zone, and the chart that explains it.
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Points Per Shot: The Number That Explains Modern Shot Selection
Multiply a shot's point value by how often it goes in and you get the stat that rebuilt NBA offenses. Why the rim and the three pay, the long two doesn't, and how points per shot reshaped the floor.
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The Value of a Possession: Points Per Possession and Why Per-100 Wins
An average NBA possession is worth a touch over a point. How points per possession separates pace from efficiency, why turnovers and offensive rebounds bend the count, and how it all rolls up into net rating.
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Home-Court Advantage: What the 2023-24 Games Actually Show
Across 1,231 real games, the home team won 54% and outscored visitors by 2.2 a night. But the edge isn't spread evenly — it hides almost entirely in the blowouts. A from-scratch look at where home court really lives.
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