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Methodology & Projections · · 10 min read

The Starting Line What Opening Night Knows About an NBA Season

A baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age explains 40% of an NBA season and misses by 7.65 wins on average. Every team's 2026-27 number.

7.65

wins: how far an opening-night baseline from last season's margin, luck, roster and age missed on average, tested on 21 seasons it never saw.

It explains 39.6% of the spread in teams' wins. It misses by 7.65 wins on average, and one team in five lands more than eleven or twelve wins from its number.

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Who brought last season back

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026. Orange: above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.

Share of each team's 2025-26 minutes played by men on its 2026-27 preseason roster, October 6, 2026, sorted: San Antonio Spurs 93.8%, Orlando Magic 90.3%, New York Knicks 88.5% at the top; Memphis Grizzlies 47.4% and Los Angeles Lakers 42.4% at the bottom. 16 of 30 teams are above the 2005-06 to 2025-26 average of 67.2%.40%60%80%100%93.8SAS90.3ORL88.5NYK84.6NOP84.1HOU76.0PHX75.4BOS74.3GSW73.3WAS72.8DET72.2IND70.8OKC70.7ATL70.4POR70.2MIL67.8CLE66.3TOR65.6MIN63.8UTA63.2BKN61.5MIA61.2CHA61.1DEN61.0DAL56.1PHI54.7CHI52.8SAC49.2LAC47.4MEM42.4LAL2005-06 to 2025-26 average: 67.2%

Worth 4.85 points of margin per unit of share against an average roster: San Antonio Spurs +1.29, Los Angeles Lakers −1.20. Rosters retrieved October 6, 2026. From The Continuity Dividend.

The class of 2025, year one

The 10 busiest 2025-26 rookies. In year two, players their age add about as much as rookies do. From The Sophomore Leap.

  1. VJ Edgecombe

    PHI · pick 3 · age 20

    minutes a game
    35.0
    points per 36
    16.5
    true shooting %
    54.0

  2. Kon Knueppel

    CHA · pick 4 · age 20

    minutes a game
    31.5
    points per 36
    21.1
    true shooting %
    63.3

  3. Cooper Flagg

    DAL · pick 1 · age 19

    minutes a game
    33.5
    points per 36
    22.6
    true shooting %
    54.8

  4. Jeremiah Fears

    NOP · pick 7 · age 19

    minutes a game
    25.8
    points per 36
    19.9
    true shooting %
    52.5

  5. Derik Queen

    NOP · pick 13 · age 21

    minutes a game
    25.0
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    54.6

  6. Ace Bailey

    UTA · pick 5 · age 19

    minutes a game
    27.6
    points per 36
    18.0
    true shooting %
    53.3

  7. Maxime Raynaud

    SAC · pick 42 · age 23

    minutes a game
    26.5
    points per 36
    16.9
    true shooting %
    61.9

  8. Nique Clifford

    SAC · pick 24 · age 24

    minutes a game
    25.1
    points per 36
    12.3
    true shooting %
    50.5

  9. Sion James

    CHA · pick 33 · age 23

    minutes a game
    22.5
    points per 36
    8.6
    true shooting %
    53.1

  10. Will Riley

    WAS · pick 21 · age 20

    minutes a game
    22.1
    points per 36
    16.8
    true shooting %
    54.8

Source: NBA Stats API via nba_api, retrieved September 2026.

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